CF is less exposed to international nat gas prices since their supply comes from US producers, and the nat gas markets are partially region locked due to all LNG plants already being at max capacity.
Basically they’ll be getting cheap gas from the US markets while selling ammonia fertilizer in the now supply constrained international markets
Written order for 82nd airborne division probably going to come out after hours.
6400 by friday? 🔮
ES futures puts, short eur/usd futures & longs puts, long nat gas calls.
HOLD ON TO YOUR BUTTS!
It's all about oil, Nat gas and Distillates regards. The Sheet Show hasn't even gotten to Intermission. Feetsies on the ground to come leaves this a 90 day "Excursion. Trade accordingly
QatarEnergy has declared force Majeure on some long-term LNG supply contracts, affecting customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China - Reuters
Nat Gas to $5?
I want you retards to make money with me. It's tanker time. They lag these events by a month+ historically then go parabolic.
NAT. FRO. Get in on it fucking now
CF is a strong company.
It's impact buy nat gas prices quite a bit, and i'd imagine there's some demand destruction with Ammonia going over $600/ton with the straight closure.
Always paid a small dividend
Been tracking this angle too and it's wild how little attention fertilizer gets compared to oil when geopolitical stuff heats up. Your timeline makes sense - oil reacts immediately but fertilizer takes time for the supply chain issues to actually surface and bite.
MOS is interesting because they've got that Tampa phosphate operation which gives them some insulation from overseas disruption. CF is more exposed to nat gas prices but their nitrogen capacity could print if imports get squeezed. The tricky part is timing since like you said the lag effect means you're betting on something that might not show up in earnings for a quarter or two.
What caught my eye is how tight global phosphate already was before any of this Hormuz drama. Morocco controls so much of that market that any additional supply shock could get ugly fast. Might be worth looking at some longer dated plays since this feels like it could drag out longer than people expect.
Your Sept calls might be early but if this thing escalates those could move quick once people start connecting the dots between fertilizer shortages and food prices.